🔹 Market Overview
Last week saw a significant rise in open interest across the board, yet prices failed to decline accordingly — a clear case of “open interest rise with stagnant prices”, highlighting the intensifying tug-of-war between bulls and bears. So far, no clear winner has emerged.

Going forward, market behavior will depend heavily on position movements:

  • No major reduction in open interest: The battle continues, with no decisive direction.
  • Sharp drop in open interest: Signals a potential short-covering rebound, as bears retreat temporarily, likely triggering a few days of price recovery.

🔸 Key Drivers

✅ Bullish Short-Term Factors:

  • Tariff Negotiation Optimism: Recent progress in U.S.-China tariff discussions provides a marginally positive backdrop for sentiment.
  • Technical Support Around 3000: Blast furnace steel production costs are estimated between 3000–3100, making the 3000 level a strong psychological and cost-based support zone.

❌ Bearish Medium-Term Factors:

  • Despite short-term rebound potential, the larger downtrend remains unchanged, driven by weakening demand and pressure on raw materials.
  • Structural issues in demand and oversupply concerns continue to weigh on the market’s medium-term outlook.

📊 Short-Term View
Rebar is likely to range-trade between 3020–3120 in the coming days. Given the uncertainty and bearish medium-term bias, the preferred strategy remains:

🔹 Sell on Strength — Avoid Long Positions
Stay cautious and avoid chasing any temporary bounce until a clearer reversal signal appears.

⚠️ Watch Closely
Monitor for large position unwinding as a signal of short-term bottoming. Until then, treat rebounds as opportunities to position from the short side.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.