🔹 Market Recap

Yesterday, the ferrous complex was lifted by strength in coking coal, driven by two main catalysts:

  1. Auction prices for coking coal surged, signaling tightening spot supply.
  2. President Xi’s official visit to Shanxi, a key coal-producing region, added to policy-driven sentiment.

As a result, coal-related futures rose over 2%, with coking coal leading the entire black sector higher.

🔸 Today’s Key Event

At 10:00 AM today, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will hold a press conference.
Markets are anticipating potentially supportive announcements, which could reinforce the current firm-to-strong bias in steel prices.

🔹 Macro Shift: Supply-Side Reform Signals

Last week’s statement from the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission — emphasizing anti-overcompetition (“anti-neijuan”) and the orderly exit of outdated capacity — has reshaped macro expectations across bulk commodities, including:

  • Glass
  • Cement
  • Industrial metals
  • And of course, steel

🔸 Market Outlook

With this evolving policy backdrop, the steel market has entered a weekly-level trend of high-level consolidation or mild bullish bias.

In the short term:

  • A sharp decline in steel prices is unlikely
  • Prices are expected to remain stable or edge higher, especially if today’s NDRC messaging is constructive

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.