🔹 Market Analysis
Yesterday, two pieces of news — rumored “Vanke debt rollover support” and “4,000 RMB mortgage interest subsidy” — triggered a strong emotional reaction in the market, pushing futures sharply higher. However, the authenticity of these messages is uncertain. The night session has since stabilized with only mild pullback.

At 3 a.m., the Federal Reserve announced its policy decision. The combination of rate cuts + renewed bond purchases came in more dovish than expected, which is supportive for equities. However, the positive spillover to the steel market is likely limited.

On the futures board, the January contracts continue to show stronger resilience, indicating that the real fundamentals are holding up market expectations. With supply and demand imbalances still mild, deep declines in the short term appear unlikely.

🔹 Macro Timing
Policy rumors created volatility, but without confirmed real measures, the market is likely to revert to its previous rhythm. The Fed’s dovish stance may support overall sentiment but does not fundamentally change steel-sector dynamics.

🔸 Strategy
Short-term price movement is expected to remain range-bound. The downside risk is not significant at this stage. Maintain a cautious stance, keep existing positions steady, and avoid chasing either direction until clearer policy signals emerge.