🔹 Key Summary:
Steel futures posted a modest rebound last week, with technical patterns showing signs of resistance and support consolidation. Despite short-term upside momentum, the broader trend remains bearish. Traders should stay cautious and treat current rallies as opportunities for strategic shorting.

🔸 Key Market Drivers:

1️⃣ Technical Outlook:
Rebar futures printed a small weekly bullish candle, featuring a 45-point upper shadow, a 15-point lower shadow, and a 21-point real body. The weekly close at 3101 marked a gain of 0.81%. Volume expanded meaningfully, and open interest increased by 60,000 lots.
Resistance is strong near 3170, and further pressure lies around 3210. Solid support is seen at 3100. Medium-to-long term, the overall trend remains downward.

2️⃣ Industry Fundamentals:
The spotlight remains on crude steel production cuts. Futures have priced in some optimism, but long-process mills (BOF) are expanding margins, suggesting that production cuts may not be significant. Inventory destocking has slowed, hinting at accumulating risks.

3️⃣ Macroeconomic Factors:
The Politburo meeting delivered no major new stimulus. Policymakers appear to be holding back incremental measures, likely saving them for a potential slowdown driven by weaker exports. The macro tone remains “stabilization first, action later.”

4️⃣ International Developments:
The tariff narrative’s influence on the ferrous complex has diminished. While minor tariff-driven fluctuations could persist over the next two months, their overall impact on steel prices is expected to be limited—unless a black swan event emerges.

🔹 Strategy & Outlook:
• Short-term rebound is intact, but structural downtrend persists.
• 3170–3210 is a heavy resistance zone; upside momentum likely to fade.
• Maintain a cautious bias; look for short opportunities on strength.

🔸 Bottom Line:
• Current rally = rebound, not a trend reversal.
• Stick to the “sell the rally” playbook.
• Patience remains key for larger short setups.

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