🔹 Market Commentary

Yesterday’s sharp rally in coking coal looked dramatic on the surface — strong volume surge, fast gains — but the open interest actually declined, revealing the move was driven by short-covering rather than genuine buying. In other words, this was more of a sentiment-driven rebound — like a tightly compressed spring snapping back briefly. Sustainability? Not likely. We expect range-bound to mild up-and-down behavior for coking coal going forward.

🔸 Impact on Steel

With coking coal no longer acting as a major drag, steel prices have a chance to breathe. In the coming days, market direction will be driven more by supply-demand fundamentals. We also expect the basis between spot and futures to narrow, hinting at a potential alignment phase before the next move.

🔸 Technical Outlook

The market is currently coiling like a spring, waiting for a breakout. Despite the short-term rebound, we still lean bearish for the mid-term.

Key resistance zone: 3000–3050.

🔸 Trading Strategy

Watch for signs of exhaustion near resistance levels. Maintain a cautious stance. Sell-on-rally remains the primary strategy as long as the structural downtrend stays intact.

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