🔹 Key Summary:
Steel futures extended their downtrend last week, but growing policy expectations, stronger spot premiums, and a temporary easing of external trade tensions suggest potential for a short-term technical rebound. Prices are testing key support, while sentiment awaits confirmation from this week’s key macro events.

🔸 Weekly Performance Review:
The October 2025 rebar contract (RB2510) closed at 3076, down 55 points from the previous week (–1.76%).
Weekly candle: 15-point upper shadow, 3-point lower shadow, 54-point real body — a clear bearish weekly bar.
Open interest surged by 260,000 contracts, despite lower trading volumes, indicating stronger short-side conviction.

🔸 Technical & Sentiment Overview:
The market remains under bearish control, with the downtrend intact.
Key technical zone: 3050–3070 — if this support breaks with volume, a retest of the previous low (2988) becomes likely.
Any rebound toward resistance should be viewed as an opportunity to sell into strength.

🔸 Macro & Policy Watch:
1️⃣ Domestic Policy Signals:
This week likely brings the Politburo meeting—a key window for economic policy guidance before the May Day holiday.
Today’s LPR decision may also hint at easing bias, potentially lifting sentiment.

2️⃣ US-China Tariff Developments:
Trump stated over the weekend that the US could “reach a deal with China in a month.” While markets view this with skepticism, it temporarily eases trade war fears, offering mild relief to risk assets.

🔸 Fundamental Insight:

  • Spot market remains resilient, with sellers showing price-supportive behavior.
  • Basis (spot – futures) continues to strengthen.
  • Iron production remains high, but inventory pressure is building.
  • Industry chatter about housing stimulus or shantytown redevelopment continues to swirl—market impact remains limited but adds speculative flavor.

🔸 Bottom Line:
• Technical support holds near-term.
• Macro & policy factors may provide a short-lived bounce.
• Strategy: Focus on tactical trading; wait for confirmation before adding directional positions.
• Any rally into resistance zones is still a potential shorting opportunity if fundamentals don’t improve.

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