🔹 Market Analysis:

1️⃣ Technical Breakdown:

  • Rebar decisively broke below 3180, signaling a potential sustained downtrend.
  • Increased volume with slight open interest expansion suggests new shorts entering the market.
  • If this break holds, further downside momentum is expected.

2️⃣ Relative Weakness Ranking:

  • Price declines from weakest to strongest:
    • Coking coal (-3%) → Coke (-2%) → Iron ore (-1.5%) → Rebar (-1%) → HRC (-0.5%)
  • HRC remains resilient, but its strength alone may not support the entire steel sector.

3️⃣ Bearish Signals from SHFE Warehouse Data:

  • Large increase in warehouse receipts, signaling potential “short squeeze” pressure on bulls in April.

🔹 Key Events to Watch:

  • March 20:
    • U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision—global risk sentiment impact.
    • China’s LPR rate announcement—monetary policy stance.
    • Steel Union inventory report—supply & demand confirmation.

🔹 Trading Strategy:

✅ Short-term: Expect some volatility before the key events on Thursday.
✅ Mid-term: If fundamentals confirm weakness post-announcements, a strong short position could be considered.
⚠️ Be cautious of potential short-term rebounds before further confirmation of the trend.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.