🔹 Core View:

The market is showing signs of a downward shift, with a focus on shorting at higher levels.

🔹 Market Overview:

Yesterday, the market experienced a notable decline:

  • Rebar dropped nearly 70 points.
  • Hot-rolled coil fell about 60 points.
  • Coke futures led the losses, followed by iron ore, with finished steel lagging behind.
  • On the physical market side, prices for both futures and spot contracts declined, with a slight strengthening of the basis.

🔹 Technical Analysis:

  • Finished Steel saw a slight increase in open interest during its decline.
  • Iron Ore experienced a decrease in open interest as it fell.
  • The near-term contracts dropped more sharply than the distant months, indicating that the sell-off is being driven by the weakening fundamentals of coke and iron ore.

🔹 Demand Assessment:

The initial signs of weak demand are becoming clearer. The delay in the start of production this year, along with weaker-than-expected demand, has started to show up in the data. The market is now re-evaluating the impact of tariffs and demand strength, with prices adjusting accordingly.

🔹 Technical Levels:

  • Resistance: The 3370 level is holding as a solid resistance, and a significant breakout above this is unlikely in the short term.
  • Support: The 3250 support level is under pressure. If it breaks, we could test 3200.

🔹 Market Outlook:

Today’s market is expected to continue oscillating within a narrow range, with a low probability of a large downward movement. The release of the Steel Federation data tomorrow could lead to a reevaluation of market sentiment.

Expected Range for Today: 3270-3320. Focus on shorting at higher levels.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.