Market Analysis

Yesterday’s market performance saw iron ore consistently hitting new highs from a technical perspective.

  • Key Levels Surpassed: Iron ore has strongly broken above the 5-day moving average (799) and the 10-day moving average (788), reaching a new high of 814. It is now only 30 points away from the post-National Day peak of 844.
  • Technical Indicators: MACD, Bollinger Bands, and DMI all suggest that the current upward momentum is far from over.

This trend appears to reflect a strategic move by major capital players. By leveraging iron ore as a driver, they aim to manipulate the black commodity futures market ahead of key policy meetings. The strategy involves pushing prices higher based on sentiment and fundamentals, enticing retail investors to take long positions, and then executing a sell-off.

Recommendations

  • Caution for Retail Investors: While the market outlook is bullish, we advise taking a “watch but don’t buy” approach.
  • Inventory Strategy: For those holding physical inventory, this is an opportune moment to sell and reduce stock levels amid rising prices.

Comprehensive Forecast

  • Rebar RB01 Contract: Likely to break through the 3,350 resistance level and fluctuate within the 3,350-3,430 range.
  • Rebar RB05 Contract: Expected to exhibit greater strength, operating in the 3,450-3,550 range.
  • Iron Ore: Expected to surpass the 811 level and move within the 810-835 range.

The market remains dynamic, with iron ore leading the charge. Strategic caution is essential in navigating these conditions effectively.

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