🔹 Market Overview
Rebar futures rose 45 points yesterday while open interest dropped by 107,000 lots, indicating that the price increase was driven mainly by short covering, not by aggressive new long positions.
This means:

  • Bears are retreating,
  • But bulls are not actively attacking,
  • Resulting in a high probability of short-term range-bound movement.

🔹 Fundamentals & Risk Outlook
Night-session coking coal dropped sharply, and based on current fundamentals, the probability of negative feedback developing later remains above 60%.

🔸 Summary
Overall, the market is shifting from “fear of falling” to “expectation adjustment,” but the upward momentum is weak.
We recommend maintaining the ‘sell on rallies’ strategy, as going long still offers poor risk-reward.