🔹 Market Overview
The impact of macroeconomic policies is fading, and the probability of negative feedback within the market is rising. This increases the likelihood of a spiral-style decline in steel prices, particularly for rebar.

🔹 Scenario Analysis
Based on the current fundamentals and sentiment, this week’s market may develop in three possible directions:

  1. 50% probability – Rebar falls below 3000, possibly testing 2950;
  2. 35% probability – Prices fluctuate within 3000–3080 range;
  3. 15% probability – Prices break above 3080.

🔸 Summary
Market sentiment remains weak, and downside pressure dominates. Unless significant policy or demand-side support emerges, the short bias remains the main strategy.