🔹 Market Overview
The current primary drag on the ferrous complex is the decline in coking coal prices. As long as coking coal fails to stabilize, steel prices will struggle to find a floor. At present, there are no technical signs of stabilization in coal, and further downside is likely.

🔸 Fundamentals

  • Supply remains strong, and demand dynamics will dictate the next move for the black sector.
  • Last week saw a build in mill inventories, which reflects slowing downstream offtake.
  • This Thursday’s Steel Union data release is seen as a key inflection point.
  • With seasonal demand tapering off and the rush to export gradually fading, a weaker demand outlook appears highly probable.

🔸 Global Factors
The U.S. decision to delay its 50% tariff hike on EU imports is still under negotiation. This reduces near-term pressure on the ferrous market from the global trade front.

🔸 Technical View
Last week’s futures chart printed a bearish weekly candle with a 17-point upper shadow, 3-point lower shadow, and a 35-point real body.

  • Settlement at 3046 marked a 36-point drop week-over-week (–1.17%).
  • Volume decreased slightly, but open interest rose by 120,000 lots — a classic “build-on-decline” pattern.
  • The price action reflects a “boiling frog” style decline — slow but persistent, with downward momentum building steadily.

🔹 Strategy Suggestion:
Maintain a Sell-on-Rally Bias
With no signs of a trend reversal and the downtrend clearly intact, traders should continue to favor short setups on upward retracements.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.