🔹 Market Overview
Over the weekend, steel billet prices saw mixed movement — a ¥10 drop on Saturday followed by stability on Sunday. As of now, the Tangshan Qian’an billet price stands at ¥2940, while the Shengtong billet is quoted at ¥2950. Warehouse spot transactions are reported at ¥3010.

Last week, billet prices fluctuated significantly, posting a net weekly gain of ¥30. The breakdown:

  • Monday: +¥60
  • Tuesday: −¥20
  • Wednesday: +¥30
  • Thursday: Flat
  • Friday: −¥30
  • Saturday: −¥10
  • Sunday: Flat

Tangshan billet inventory declined sharply, falling from 684,900 tons to 622,100 tons — a drop of 62,800 tons or 9.17%. This points to a certain level of underlying demand resilience.

Overall, billet inventories remain relatively low, providing downside support. The key remains whether end-user demand can continue to hold up.

🔸 Key Drivers

✅ Bullish Short-Term Factors:

  • Inventory Drawdown: A notable drop in Tangshan billet stocks suggests firm downstream offtake.
  • Cost Support: Current prices are approaching production cost lines, offering a buffer against further declines.

❌ Bearish Medium-Term Factors:

  • Demand Uncertainty: Sustained strength in demand is still questionable, especially as downstream sectors remain cautious.
  • Futures Weakness: Continued pressure in related futures contracts may weigh on sentiment.

📊 Short-Term View
Night session futures closed weaker across the board:

  • Rebar (RB) settled at ¥3086 (−14)
  • Hot-rolled coil (HRC) at ¥3228 (−12)
  • Coke at ¥1431.5 (−22.5)
  • Iron ore at ¥725.5 (−3.5)

Short-term support is expected around current levels, but without stronger demand confirmation, rebounds may be limited.

🔹 Strategy Suggestion:
Cautiously Neutral — Monitor spot-futures linkage and warehouse flows for short-term trading signals.

⚠️ Watch Closely
Focus on demand-side indicators and further inventory shifts. A continued drawdown could stabilize pricing, while signs of accumulation may pressure prices further.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.