📉 Muted Session Across the Board
Thursday’s market saw narrow-range consolidation with a cautious tone.

  • Volatility compressed
  • Volume dropped sharply
  • Traders moved to the sidelines after recent rebound

🔍 1. Technical Overview

📦 Finished Steel (Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil):

  • Open Interest: Slight decline
  • Volume: Down ~50% vs previous day
  • Interpretation: Major pullback in participation signals lack of conviction on both sides.
  • Pattern: This type of low-volume consolidation often precedes either trend reversal or mid-cycle adjustment.

🧱 Raw Materials:

  • Coking Coal & PCI Coal: Continued weakness; the main drag on the ferrous complex
  • Iron Ore: Remains relatively strong, but momentum is fading; room for upside appears limited.

📊 2. Fundamental Snapshot

⚙️ Supply & Demand:

  • Apparent demand and stockpile data remain neutral overall
  • Hot metal output stays high; blast furnace operating rates are still elevated
  • 🔍 Key Issue: Demand sustainability remains the market’s biggest uncertainty

📅 Watch for:

  • Critical demand/supply data release next Thursday, which could act as a market trigger

🌐 3. Macro Backdrop

🇨🇳 China:

  • April financials: Social financing & M2 growth mildly supportive
  • Driven mainly by government bond issuance
  • Real estate sector remains weak → macro outlook: neutral

🇺🇸 Global:

  • U.S. equities: Entering consolidation after rebound
  • Crude oil: Notable correction
  • Geopolitics: Russia–Ukraine talks ongoing
  • ⚠️ Impact on steel sector: Limited for now

📌 Trading Strategy

Adopt a “light short with tight risk” stance.
Wait for a clear directional breakout before increasing exposure.
⚠️ Risk control is critical in a low-volume, indecisive market.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.