🔹 Market Recap

Last night, the release of fresh hot metal output data triggered a sharp rally across the ferrous complex, led by coking coal.

  • Hot metal production hit 2.4229 million tons, maintaining historically high levels.
  • This reinforced market confidence in the resilience of demand for coal and iron ore.

🔸 Price Performance Snapshot

  • Coking coal soared by +3.1%, leading the gains
  • Iron ore followed with +1.7%
  • Coke rose +1.6%
  • Rebar up +0.8%
  • Hot-rolled coil (HRC) gained +0.9%

🔹 Technical Observations

  • Coking coal and iron ore showed strong volume expansion with increasing open interest, indicating high capital participation and potential for further upside.
  • Rebar rose on declining open interest, while HRC saw modest long additions (mainly due to hedging activity, reflecting its strong industrial characteristics).

This clearly shows that the current rally is driven by raw materials, not by end-user demand for finished steel.

🔸 Outlook & Strategy

A raw-material-led rally often faces sustainability challenges if downstream demand does not follow through.
We recommend closely monitoring shifts in demand for finished steel.

✅ Suggested Strategy:
Focus on left-side accumulation opportunities in preparation for potential trend reversal or sector rotation.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.