🔹 Macro Focus This Week

This week marks a critical window for market-moving events, with four major developments in focus:

  1. China’s Central Politburo Economic Work Conference – Markets are watching for anti-overcapacity measures and incremental stimulus policies.
  2. U.S.-China Trade Talks in Sweden (Monday–Tuesday) – Attention centers on whether the August 12 deadline will be extended, and if a deal modeled after agreements with the EU and Japan can be reached.
  3. U.S. Federal Reserve Rate Decision – Results are expected at 2:00 AM on July 31 Beijing time. Most forecasts suggest no change in policy.
  4. U.S. Bilateral Trade Agreements – August 1 is the anticipated deadline per Trump’s earlier statement. So far, agreements with Japan and the EU have been reached, offering short-term support for capital markets.

🔹 Market Review & Price Outlook

  • Coking Coal: After a strong rally last week, coking coal has entered a short-term consolidation phase. The expected trading range is 1,100–1,200 CNY/ton.
  • Rebar Futures: Prices surged to 3,358 CNY/ton last week before pulling back by 90 points to 3,268. In the near term, rebar is expected to fluctuate within the 3,230–3,330 range. The 3,400 level remains a strong resistance zone.

🔸 Trading Strategy

  • Main strategy: Focus on shorting rebar and iron ore on price rallies.

Rebar Outlook:

  • Resistance: ~3,380 CNY/ton
  • Support: ~3,000 CNY/ton

Iron Ore Outlook:

  • Resistance: ~845 CNY/ton
  • Support: ~730 CNY/ton