🔹 Market Overview
Yesterday, the black steel complex showed clear divergence. Coking coal continued its rally, but failed to pull other products higher. Rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore all experienced shrinking volumes and open interest, signaling a phase of profit-taking and consolidation at high levels.

🔹 Current Market Is Propped Up by Three Key Factors:

1. Coking Coal Cost Push + Broad Commodity Momentum
Driven by macro themes like “anti-involution” and industrial policy expectations, commodities like polysilicon, alumina, glass, and soda ash have all surged recently.
However, this momentum is weakening, and coal’s influence is no longer sufficient to sustain a broader rally.

2. Awaiting Ministry of Industry’s “Top 10 Industry Stabilization Plans”
Markets expect targeted support policies for steel, nonferrous metals, and others, but so far, details remain vague.
Additionally, there is speculation about production curbs during the September 3rd military parade, which could support prices temporarily.

3. Political Bureau Meeting at Month-End
There are hopes for stronger stimulus on real estate and infrastructure. But given solid H1 GDP data and no imminent Fed rate cuts, markets may be overly optimistic.
A large-scale easing remains unlikely—a mild, “growth stabilization” tone is more probable.

🔹 Outlook & Timing
With coal losing steam and policy expectations still unrealized, the risk of a pullback is rising.
If upcoming policy moves fall short, a significant correction could occur in early August, marking a key inflection window for the steel market.