🔹 Key Drivers Last Week:

  1. The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission’s push to reduce inefficiency and phase out outdated capacity continues to boost sentiment.
  2. The Central Urban Work Conference fell short of expectations.
  3. Market optimism following the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement.
  4. Friday night’s rally fueled by MIIT’s “10 Key Industry Stabilization Plan.”

🔸 Market Pulse:
Iron-water output remains high, coking coal supply tightness persists, and policy expectations are heating up. These factors collectively ignited bullish enthusiasm in futures markets.

📈 Coke is expected to raise prices again (Round 2). Steel billet rose ¥40 on Friday and another ¥40 over the weekend—up ¥80 last week in total, with most of the rally happening post-Friday.

📊 Market Sentiment:

  • Overall sentiment remains bullish.
  • Basis trading continues as buyers restock.
  • Before the full implementation of growth-supporting measures and the Politburo meeting, futures are likely to remain “range-bound with an upward bias.”

🎯 Probabilities This Week:

  • 50% chance of gradual rally
  • 35% chance of high-level consolidation
  • 15% chance of sudden correction

📌 Key Price Zones to Watch:

  • Rebar: Breakout above ¥3200 → Next resistance: ¥3250–¥3350
  • Hot Rolled Coil: Above ¥3380 → Resistance: ¥3450–¥3500
  • Iron Ore: Above ¥810 → Resistance: ¥830–¥845
  • Coking Coal: Above ¥960 → Resistance: ¥1030–¥1080