🔹 Market Recap

From Friday night’s session data, it’s clear that bullish momentum in finished steel is weakening.
Both rebar and hot-rolled coil showed significant declines in open interest, signaling profit-taking and reduced speculative engagement.

In contrast, the dual-coke segment (coking coal & coke) remains strong, continuing to provide underlying support to the broader ferrous complex.

🔸 Weekly Technical Picture – Rebar 2510 Contract

  • Formed a weekly bullish candlestick with a 16-point upper shadow, 20-point lower shadow, and a 63-point real body
  • Closed at 3133, up 61 points from the prior week (+1.99%)
  • Volume declined, and open interest dropped by 38,000 lots, indicating reduced participation
  • Meanwhile, the January 2026 contract (2601) gained more than 20,000 lots in open interest — showing capital rotation from near-month to far-month contracts

🔹 Market Outlook

We expect the rebar market to oscillate within a 3090–3150 range this week, barring any unexpected catalysts.
In a more volatile scenario, prices could briefly spike toward 3180, but sustained upward momentum seems unlikely without renewed fundamental support.

🔸 Key Insight

The shift in capital from 2510 to 2601 suggests investors are positioning for long-term themes, possibly tied to policy expectations or macro shifts, while near-term conviction softens.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.