🔹 Macro & Fundamental Drivers

  1. Domestic Policy Disappointment – Market expectations for supportive macro policies have been unmet, and sentiment around “anti-involution” measures has cooled, weighing on the steel market.
  2. Overseas Data Shock – U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data came in sharply negative for capital markets, raising fears of an economic slowdown, further pressuring steel sentiment.
  3. Supply-Demand Balance – The market remains in a fragile equilibrium. During price rallies, arbitrage long positions have already turned profitable, prompting selling pressure from position unwinding.

🔹 Technical Outlook

Last week’s bearish weekly candle fully engulfed the previous week’s gains, suggesting a high likelihood of either range-bound trading or a downward move this week.

For Rebar 2510 main contract:

  • Last week’s session formed a candlestick with a 32-point upper shadow, 17-point lower shadow, and a 149-point real body.
  • Closing at 3,203 CNY/ton, down 153 points (-4.56%) from the prior week, it erased nearly two-thirds of the previous week’s rally.
  • This confirms that recent highs have likely been established.

🔸 Trading Strategy

Market structure favors a continued consolidation-to-downtrend bias this week. Traders are advised to maintain a sell-on-strength approach, targeting short entries near resistance and taking profits at support levels.