🔹 Key Takeaway:
Policy headwinds are temporarily easing, while expectations for domestic stimulus are rising. Steel futures are likely to see a choppy rebound throughout the week.

🔸 Major Developments:
1️⃣ US-China Tariff Tensions:

  • The U.S. announced tariff exemptions for certain electronic products, improving China’s export outlook.
  • China’s top leadership is visiting Southeast Asia, signaling closer regional economic ties.

2️⃣ Domestic Policy Expectations:

  • The likelihood of Q2 economic stimulus measures is increasing, especially focused on infrastructure and manufacturing support.
  • Market sentiment is gradually shifting toward cautious optimism.

🔹 Market Outlook (Technical + Macro Combined):
• Rebar Oct Contract (RB2510): 3120–3250
• Hot-Rolled Coil Oct Contract (HC2510): 3300–3380
• Iron Ore Sep Contract (I2509): 750–800

🔸 Trading Strategy:
1️⃣ Position Management:

  • Reduce existing short positions at lower ranges to avoid rebound risks.
  • New short entries can be considered at resistance levels (“left-side” trades):
    • Rebar: 3200–3240, Stop at 3300
    • Hot-Rolled Coil: 3330–3360, Stop at 3410
    • Iron Ore: 780–790, Stop at 803

2️⃣ Key Indicators to Monitor:

  • Direct mill shipments (indicates real demand strength)
  • Inventory changes in North China (crucial for supply-demand balance)

⚠️ Special Note:
Watch for key macro data on Wednesday (GDP, Fixed Asset Investment, etc.). Stronger-than-expected figures may alter the rebound pace. Keep positions under 30% of total capital and use strict stop-loss protections.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.