🔹 Market Outlook

The black steel complex is currently in a post-drop rebound phase, but the recovery remains range-bound. We expect the market to maintain a sideways pattern in the short term, with limited upside.

However, two potential turning points could trigger a “second bottom” scenario:

  • This Thursday (Steel Union data release)
  • Next Thursday (cycle timing window)

🔸 Key Market Drivers

  1. Coking Coal Stabilizing:
    After leading the drop, coking coal is now holding its ground and entering a consolidation phase, reducing its drag on the broader black sector.
  2. Strong Basis Support for Steel:
    Steel futures are in a technical digestion phase, narrowing the basis gap. Low mill inventory and manageable order pressure continue to prop up physical prices.
  3. Downtrend to Resume?
    Once fundamentals shift — especially on the supply-demand front — we expect a resumption of the downward trend, likely coinciding with the Steel Union data release.
  4. Global Risks Rising:
    International uncertainty is escalating —
    • California talks independence,
    • Civil unrest in NYC,
    • Trump feuding with Musk.
      These create external shocks that may spill into commodities.

🔸 Trading Strategy

Stay nimble. Avoid aggressive chasing on rebounds — short-term trades within the range are ideal. Watch for sell signals near 3050, and prepare for potential downside if data or sentiment turns.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.