🔹 Macro Developments

On Monday, Iran signaled a willingness to engage in dialogue with the U.S. and Israel, using Arab intermediaries to propose negotiations over its nuclear program.
This unexpected détente led to sharp intraday declines in crude oil and gold, while U.S. equities posted gains of over 1%.

The implication:
The geopolitical risk premium that previously supported commodity prices — including steel — has begun to fade. From last night’s trading session, the market has shifted back to fundamentals as the dominant driver.

🔹 Fundamental Landscape

  • Supply & Demand: The supply-demand imbalance is not yet significant.
    Despite early signs of weakening demand, steel mills are still not under order pressure.
  • Basis: The spot-futures basis remains relatively strong, which provides short-term support.
  • Current Trend: The market is in a technical range-bound phase after a minor rebound.

🔹 Price Action & Outlook

Monday’s session exhibited sideways movement following a mild rebound.
We believe the short-term trading range is likely to remain between 2950–3050 (RB example).
Given limited momentum on both sides, we expect consolidation to continue in the near term.

🔸 Strategy Guidance

With futures now back in a narrow trading band, we recommend a range-trading approach.
Our preferred strategy is to initiate short positions near the upper edge of the range (around 3050), in line with the broader medium-term downtrend.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.