🔹 Market Outlook:

This week, the market is expected to either consolidate or decline. The April 2nd global reciprocal tariff decision is the primary risk factor—if the policy is softened, the market impact will be limited; however, if fully implemented, there is a high probability of a sharp downturn.

🔹 Fundamental Analysis:

1️⃣ Steel Demand & Basis Performance:

  • Construction steel demand is showing a slowdown on a week-over-week basis.
  • Flat steel products are performing relatively better.
  • Basis trends suggest a continued range-bound market, with fundamentals still holding up for now.

2️⃣ Raw Material Market:

  • Coke and coking coal are showing signs of stabilization and bottoming out.
  • Iron ore remains relatively high, offering temporary price support.

3️⃣ Key Risk Events:

  • April 2nd – Global Tariff Decision: High uncertainty; a strict implementation could trigger a market-wide sell-off.
  • April 5th – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: Another key macroeconomic event adding to market uncertainty.

🔹 Trading Strategy:

✅ Main Strategy:

  • “Sell on rallies” remains the preferred approach.

✅ Key Positioning:

  • Focus on mid-term short positions, with a holding period of 1-2 weeks or even longer (1 month+).

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