🔹 Market Analysis:

1️⃣ Positioning & Liquidity:

  • Another 13.5 million contracts closed yesterday, following the previous day’s 14.7 million contract reduction → Major funds rolling positions to the next contract month.
  • Big money is playing safe, avoiding major moves → High probability of continued range-bound trading.

2️⃣ Fundamentals:

  • Steady demand for medium plates, cold-rolled, and galvanized steel.
  • No major supply-demand imbalance → Steel mills have no urgency to cut prices, but limited room for hikes.
  • Spot transactions are mainly small orders, indicating cautious downstream buying.

3️⃣ Policy Uncertainty:

  • Frequent rumors on production cuts, but no official confirmation yet → Market hesitant to rally, but also resistant to falling further.
  • Current trading range: 3150-3250.

4️⃣ Technical Outlook:

  • MACD flattening on the daily chart, indicating sideways movement.
  • Key levels:
    • Resistance: 3250 (strong overhead supply).
    • Support: 3150 (cost support from electric arc furnace production).
    • Breakout catalyst needed: Either confirmed production cuts or aggressive macroeconomic easing.

🔹 Trading Strategy:
✅ Main Strategy: Sell the rally – Focus on short entries near 3250 resistance.
✅ Spot Market: Prioritize offloading inventory at stable prices.
⚠️ Caution: Stay flexible – Official policy announcements could trigger abrupt market moves.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.