🔹 Market Analysis:

1️⃣ Technical Outlook:

  • This week, the market is expected to fluctuate between 3150 and 3280.
  • Price action remains in a range-bound consolidation, with no clear directional breakout yet.

2️⃣ International Factors: Bullish

  • Former U.S. President Trump stated that the “reciprocal tariff plan will remain flexible”, which is supportive of commodities.
  • The Federal Reserve reported a $776 billion loss, which could weaken the U.S. dollar and provide upward momentum for commodities, especially gold.

3️⃣ Domestic Factors: Mildly Bullish

  • Policy signals remain supportive, with increasing speculation of a Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) cut this week, boosting market sentiment.

4️⃣ Fundamentals:

  • No major supply-demand imbalances at the moment.
  • Cold-rolled, hard-rolled, and galvanized steel demand remains strong, with inventory depleting at an accelerated pace.

5️⃣ Valuation & Cost Analysis:

  • Coke and iron ore prices are declining, contributing to lower production costs.
  • EAF (Electric Arc Furnace) costs have dropped to around 3130, setting a floor for steel prices.
  • Overall, steel price valuation remains neutral, supported by EAF production costs.

🔹 Market Outlook:

  • Current Phase: Range-bound trading within 3150-3280.
  • Resistance Levels: 3280, Support Levels: 3150.
  • Short-Term Trend: Awaiting further policy confirmation, with mild bullish sentiment in the short term.

🔹 Trading Strategy:
✅ Main Strategy: Range-bound trading – Buy near support (3150), sell near resistance (3280).
✅ Short-term traders: Look for momentum shifts based on policy updates and global commodity trends.
⚠️ Caution: If 3150 breaks, expect further downside momentum. If 3280 breaks, the rebound could extend.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.