🔹 Current Market Background

Bullish Factors:

  1. Two Sessions Approaching:
    The market is showing some anticipation, with expectations building around potential policy support.
  2. Stable Raw Material Prices:
    Prices for raw materials, including iron ore and coking coal, remain relatively strong, providing a solid foundation for the steel market.
  3. Gradual Release of Demand from Construction Sites:
    While demand from construction projects is slowly ramping up, it’s not expected to surge quickly.

Bearish Factors:

  1. Foreign Anti-Dumping Concerns:
    Ongoing issues with anti-dumping measures from abroad are creating some uncertainty in the market.
  2. Lack of Confidence Among Bulls:
    Spot market traders are taking a wait-and-see approach, with many hesitant to commit to buying.
  3. Overall Caution in Market Sentiment:
    There’s a general sense of caution, with participants wary of taking large risks.

🔹 Summary:

The market is caught in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors. As a result, we expect price movements to be range-bound, likely oscillating between 3300 and 3400 this week without significant breakthroughs.

🔹 Overall Strategy:

  • Before the Two Sessions:
    The cost-benefit ratio for buying is low, so shorting at higher levels is preferable.
  • Intraday Strategy:
    Focus on short positions, with iron ore being the top priority, followed by finished steel. Keep positions light, around 20%, to manage risk effectively.

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