🔹 Overall Viewpoint

Yesterday, the market experienced small fluctuations within a 30-point range, offering little room for significant trading opportunities. During the night session, both coking coal and iron ore showed strong performance, with iron ore holding its ground. The rebar market was passively pulled up.

One key feature observed yesterday was the “Iron Ore Long-Term Stronger than Near-Term” spread.

🔹 Analysis of Market Behavior

The convergence of the iron ore basis is the primary reason for this trend. Currently, the futures market is heavily discounted compared to the spot market, mainly due to concerns over low production and weak demand, which have limited the upside. However, the far-month contracts face fewer issues and are generally more optimistic, leading to a recovery in basis and narrowing of the spread.

🔹 Market Outlook

Overall, the market is still consolidating within the 3250-3350 range. The strength of demand recovery will likely dictate the extent of any potential rebound. Today’s focus will be on the Steel Union data release, which will provide more clarity for future decision-making.

🔹 Operational Strategy

Until the Two Sessions are concluded, we recommend a defensive approach. Focus on observing the market for clearer signals. For short-term operations, adopt light positions and consider selling on rallies.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.