🔹 Market Overview

This week, the market has entered a macro policy quiet period, and prices are returning to industry fundamentals. In the short term, the fundamental balance is relatively stable, with minimal contradictions. The probability of strong negative feedback (i.e., sharp declines) is low.

🔹 Fundamentals & Supply Dynamics

Due to compressed steel mill profits and the fact that annual production capacity is nearly exhausted, we expect an increase in mill maintenance and production cuts this week. Steel prices are likely to fluctuate under the combined influence of reduced mill output and subdued demand.

🔸 Trading Strategy

Steel prices are expected to trade in a range-bound pattern this week, with a slightly lower center of gravity. For example, Rebar Futures are likely to fluctuate between 3,020–3,150 CNY/ton. The preferred approach remains “sell on rallies”, as taking long positions currently offers low risk-reward value.