🔹 Market Analysis

Yesterday, news of safety inspections at several coal mines in Shanxi and temporary restrictions on Mongolian coal imports caused a rebound in coking coal prices, providing support to steel prices.

Meanwhile, comments from former President Trump about the Iran-Israel conflict potentially ending or reigniting had limited market impact, as overall tensions remain considered manageable.

🔸 Geopolitical Outlook
We maintain that lowering oil prices remains Trump’s core objective to ease the pressure of accumulating U.S. debt interest payments. Therefore, the likelihood of a significant escalation in Middle East tensions is currently low.

🔸 Fundamental Drivers
The market is expected to be influenced primarily by industrial supply-demand fundamentals and coking coal price dynamics.

  • The supply-demand balance remains weakly stable for now, but the recent slow weakening of basis prices signals ongoing weak demand.
  • Although coking coal prices have rebounded, the upside is limited overall.

🔹 Near-Term Outlook

The short-term market will likely remain range-bound and volatile, with limited operational opportunities in ferrous metals futures.
We expect the market to choose a clear direction within the next two weeks, with a higher probability of downward movement.

🔹 Trading Recommendations

  • Exercise patience and caution; refrain from action if the market remains inactive (“if the enemy doesn’t move, I don’t move”).
  • Consider shorting near the upper range boundaries during consolidation phases.
  • Alternatively, place conditional orders to follow breakout signals on the right side of the move.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.