🔹 Market Overview

The current market is characterized by a decline led by coking coal, with finished steel products following suit, while iron ore remains relatively strong and the basis continues to strengthen.

Among finished products, rebar is outperforming hot-rolled coil. Market sentiment remains predominantly bearish, with some speculating coking coal prices could drop to 600 or even 500 RMB per ton.

However, big data analysis of basis trends indicates an increasing probability of a short-term rebound. Downside space appears limited, making short-selling at current levels less attractive from a risk-reward perspective.

🔹 Billet Market Update

Steel billet prices remained stable yesterday despite futures weakness. Current prices are around 2900 RMB in Qian’an and 2910 RMB in Songting, with trader warehouse prices including tax at approximately 2970-2980 RMB.

There is a strong willingness among billet producers to support prices. Although steel prices are being dragged down, billet sellers are passive rather than active in price declines. Weekly average billet price stands at 2920 RMB, and the monthly average at 2940 RMB, reflecting a general downtrend.

🔸 Night Session Recap

  • Rebar (Oct) closed at 2957, down 7
  • Hot-Rolled Coil (Oct) closed at 3079, down 21
  • Coke closed at 1325.5, down 28.5
  • Iron Ore closed at 699.5, up 1.5

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.