🌍 Global Risk-On Sentiment Intensifies
Markets rallied globally as multiple geopolitical and policy events eased downside risk:

  • U.S.–China tariff tensions further eased.
  • India–Pakistan declared a ceasefire.
  • The U.S. signed a new arms deal with Saudi Arabia.
  • Russia and Ukraine resumed peace negotiations.

With risk appetite on the rise, U.S. stocks surged, A-shares broke above 3400, and commodities saw broad-based gains. This remains a macro-driven rally rather than a demand-led one.

📌 Key Observations

1️⃣ Still a Rebound, Not a Reversal
The current move is likely a short-term rebound, not a full trend reversal. This distinction is critical: our strategy remains selling at resistance, not chasing the highs.

2️⃣ Whipsaw Market = Capital Rotation
We’re seeing classic “shakeout” behavior—markets rally one day, then drop the next. This reflects large capital attempting to test conviction, absorb short positions at higher levels, and shake out weak hands.

📊 Technical Breakdown

  • Rebar, HRC, Coking Coal, PCI Coal:
    Showing price gains on falling open interest, indicating short-covering, not aggressive new long positions. This raises doubts about rally sustainability.
  • Iron Ore:
    Rising prices on rising volume & open interest—a much healthier signal.
    ▪️ Likely acting as the leader in the ferrous complex.
    ▪️ Bullish participation reflects optimism on sustained hot metal output.
    ▪️ May indicate possible control by dominant capital.

⚠️ Strategic Outlook

This is a macro-driven, shakeout-style rebound.
Not the time for aggressive shorting, but the “sell-on-rally” bias remains.
Watch for signs of exhaustion at key technical levels.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.