🔹 Market Overview
Yesterday’s high-level policy meeting from the three ministries failed to deliver surprises, bringing the market back to fundamental-based trading. Momentum has weakened slightly as bearish elements begin to outweigh the bullish ones.

🔸 Key Drivers

✅ Bullish Factors:

  • Strengthening Basis: Spot prices for finished steel remain stronger than futures, reflecting solid downstream demand and no significant pressure on steel mill order books.

❌ Bearish Factors:

  • Coking Coal Weakness: Coking coal futures dropped by 2.57%, and coke fell 2.45% during the night session, dragging down the entire ferrous complex.

🌍 Macro Developments:

  • The U.S. Fed’s FOMC decision early this morning was in line with market expectations and had little impact.
  • On the trade front, China’s agreement to re-engage in tariff negotiations is neutral to slightly positive in tone, with no immediate downside.

📊 Core Concern:
The biggest headwind right now is weakening steel demand, which appears to have peaked and is starting to retreat. Combined with declining momentum in coking coal and coke, this poses downside risk.

⚠️ Today’s China Steel Union demand data (afternoon release) will be a critical short-term indicator.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.