🔹 Key Summary:
Steel futures dipped again on April 22, approaching recent lows. Coking coal and coke led the decline, dragging rebar and hot-rolled coil down, while iron ore remained relatively resilient. The market showed signs of choppy shakeouts ahead of key macro events, with sentiment cautious and direction unclear.

🔸 Key Market Observations:

1️⃣ Sector Divergence:
Coke and coking coal were the weakest performers, continuing their sharp selloff.
Steel products (rebar, HRC) followed the downside, though with less momentum.
Iron ore showed strength relative to other ferrous products, suggesting still-solid demand or speculative support.

2️⃣ Shakeout Price Action:
Price movement suggests pre-meeting positioning and short-term washouts rather than clear directional conviction. The market is consolidating with erratic swings—a classic “no-trade zone” for trend followers.

3️⃣ Policy Anticipation Dominates:
With the April Politburo meeting expected later this month, markets are holding off on major moves. Expectations are high, but uncertainty around real estate support or stimulus limits conviction.

🔹 Trading Strategy:

• Core View: Avoid chasing breakouts. Stick to the plan: “Don’t go long – fade rallies.”

• Patience is key – wait for prices to rebound into resistance zones to establish short positions.

• Short-term trades only before the Politburo meeting. Larger directional trades should wait until after the policy tone is clear.

🔸 Bottom Line:
• Market remains choppy and indecisive, dominated by policy speculation.
• No need to force trades – let price come to you.
• Reaffirm the strategy: wait, observe, and sell strength until clearer signals emerge.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.