🔹 Key Summary:
Steel futures remained weak on April 16 as macro sentiment worsened, but downside momentum is limited. Despite stronger bearish signals, bulls have not fully exited the market. Technical and cost-based supports remain valid in the short term.

🔸 Key Market Drivers:

1️⃣ US Tariff Rhetoric Escalates:
Trump proposed a symbolic 245% tariff hike—though lacking substance, it triggered renewed fears of a trade war escalation. Risk sentiment turned cautious across commodities.

2️⃣ China Economic Data Misses Expectations:
Real estate remains in contraction, while infrastructure growth is insufficient to offset the drag. Overall data tone is negative, offering little near-term macro support.

3️⃣ Coking Coal Market Distortions:
Problems with coking coal warehouse receipts discouraged delivery-side interest. Prices fell sharply, with signs of short squeezes pressuring sentiment across the ferrous sector.

🔹 Technical & Sentiment Insight:
Despite an increase in open interest and fresh short positioning, prices held relatively stable. This suggests bearish conviction, but also reveals that bulls are still resisting a breakdown. Current steel prices are near EAF cost levels, and spot premiums (basis) are strengthening.

There’s also market noise around possible real estate stimulus (“shantytown redevelopment”), though credibility is low. Still, it injects some speculative support into the narrative.

🔸 Bottom Line:
• No sharp breakdown yet – prices are still finding short-term support.
• Market sentiment remains fragile but not decisively bearish.
• Traders are advised to stay cautious until stronger directional signals emerge.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.