🔹 Key Theme: Choppy Consolidation Phase Before the Next Move

The market is currently in a “cooling-off” period following the U.S. decision to temporarily suspend tariffs for 90 days. This has led to a short-term rebound and subsequent sideways price movement. Going forward, the trajectory of the market will be dictated by domestic policy developments and the steel industry’s supply-demand dynamics.

🔸 Macro View: Imbalance on the Horizon

Based on our modeling of supply-demand data in the steel sector, we expect a major supply-demand mismatch to emerge between April 15 and April 25. During this period, hot metal production will likely outpace demand recovery, raising the risk of a sharp price correction.

While the short-term trend may remain supported by stimulus expectations, any upside is likely to be limited and short-lived.

🔹 Trading Strategy: Prepare for Short Setups at Local Highs

Our primary strategy for the coming days is to observe and identify local highs, using those levels to gradually build short positions in anticipation of a breakdown.

🔸 Product Selection Priority for Shorts:

1️⃣ Iron Ore – Top pick due to high volatility and sensitivity to supply-demand shocks
2️⃣ Rebar – Strong correlation with infrastructure demand
3️⃣ Hot-Rolled Coil – More stable, but still vulnerable
4️⃣ Coking Coal – Less preferred, but still watch for breakdown signals

Given the current range-bound and indecisive price action, we recommend staying out of the market today and waiting for clearer direction before initiating trades.

Stay patient and watch for signs of weakness as we approach the anticipated supply-demand inflection window.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.