Futures Morning Brief | April 3, 2025 | Tariff Impact Short-Term Downtrend, Rebound Expected After Qingming Festival

🔹 Market Overview & Tariff Impact
The recent escalation in U.S. tariffs has exceeded market expectations, particularly affecting Southeast Asia, with tariffs on Chinese products reaching up to 54%. This has triggered a significant short-term downturn in steel prices. Expect spot prices to decline by 30-60 yuan today. This situation has created downward pressure across the global steel market.

🔹 Price Forecast for Today
✅ Spot Market: A substantial drop of 30-60 yuan is expected.
✅ Futures Market: The rebar 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3150-3230 yuan.

  • Short-Term Support: 3150 yuan
  • Short-Term Resistance: 3230 yuan
  • Future Resistance: 3250 yuan

🔹 Tariff Policy Overview & Market Response
The U.S. has imposed tariffs on China and other major trading partners, significantly increasing the tax burden on steel products. While the U.S. stock market has reacted sharply with a 5% drop in NASDAQ futures, the impact on the RMB has been relatively mild. This reaction reflects a market that has absorbed much of the tariff news already, with volatility lower than expected.

🔹 Outlook & Strategy
✅ Short-Term Outlook: The market is expected to continue its downtrend today, largely driven by the impact of tariffs. However, with most of the worst-case tariff scenarios priced in, we could see the market reach a temporary bottom.
✅ Rebound Potential: Following the Qingming Festival, a technical rebound is expected, supported by domestic policy measures and market demand for recovery.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.