🔹 Market Analysis:

1️⃣ Positioning & Liquidity:

  • Three consecutive days of range-bound trading, indicating market indecision.
  • Contract rollovers accelerating:
    • May contract (05) reduced open interest: -14.7M (Monday), -13.5M (Tuesday), -8.29M (Wednesday).
    • October contract (10) increasing open interest: +5.73M, +7.99M, +7.33M.
    • 05 contract at 1.7M OI, 10 contract at 894K OI → Expect full transition by early April.
  • Funds moving early suggests lack of strong directional intent, reinforcing short-term consolidation.

2️⃣ Fundamentals:

  • No significant supply-demand imbalance.
  • Medium plate and galvanized steel demand remain stable, supporting high hot metal output.
  • Short-term peak in demand possible this or next week → Potential downside risk post-Qingming Festival.

3️⃣ Macro & Policy Factors:

  • April 2: U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs Policy decision → Key external risk.
  • China’s new environmental policy shift:
    • From “output control” to “carbon emission control” → Industry-wide impact depends on implementation details.
    • Awaiting regulatory clarification for potential market effects.

4️⃣ Technical Outlook:

  • Range-bound trading likely to persist into month-end.
  • Key levels:
    • Support: 3180
    • Resistance: 3280
  • Trend outlook: Higher probability of downside movement post-Qingming.

🔹 Trading Strategy:
✅ Main Strategy: Trade within the range (3180-3280), lean towards selling rallies.
✅ Watch for policy signals: If stricter environmental controls emerge, potential bullish catalyst.
⚠️ Risk Factors: April 2 tariff decision could trigger volatility – Stay alert for rapid shifts.

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