🔹 Market Analysis:

1️⃣ Technical Outlook:

  • Rebar formed a small bullish candle with a 28-point lower shadow and a 14-point body, closing up 0.44%.
  • The market saw a weak bounce after hitting 3134, but the lack of strong upside momentum suggests this is merely a short-term correction rather than a trend reversal.

2️⃣ Volume & Open Interest:

  • Trading volume increased, but open interest declined, indicating that the rebound was driven by short-covering rather than fresh long positions.
  • This suggests no clear shift in trend, keeping the market in a weak consolidation phase within an overall downtrend.

3️⃣ Fundamentals:

  • Demand for medium plates, hard-rolled, and galvanized steel remains stable, while construction steel demand remains weak due to poor liquidity and sluggish project execution.
  • No significant supply-demand imbalances yet, but potential risks are emerging.
  • The imbalance between weak demand recovery and strong production resumption may intensify in the coming weeks.

4️⃣ Macro Sentiment:

  • No major bearish factors from global markets.
  • Domestic policy expectations, including a potential RRR cut, provide mild support but are not strong enough to reverse the downtrend.

🔹 Market Outlook:

  • Current Phase: Weak rebound within a larger downtrend.
  • Resistance Levels: 3200-3250, with support at 3130.
  • Short-Term Trend: Likely continued downward pressure after this brief consolidation.

🔹 Trading Strategy:
✅ Main Strategy: Sell the rally – use short-term rebounds to establish short positions.
✅ Short-term traders: Look for resistance near 3200-3250 for potential short entries.
⚠️ Caution: A confirmed break below 3130 would signal further downside acceleration.

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