Futures Morning Report for March 17th

  1. Last Week’s Market Performance
  • Rebar futures painted a weekly bullish candlestick with:
    • Upper shadow: 7 points
    • Lower shadow: 56 points
    • Real body: 27 points
  • Weekly increase: 15 points (0.46%)
  • Trading volume: Shrank
  • Open interest: Decreased by 155,000 lots
  1. Key Observations from Last Week
  • Wednesday: Price rose with reduced open interest.
  • Friday Night Session: Price dropped with increased open interest.
  1. Reason for Price Rise with Reduced Open Interest
  • Intense battle between bulls and bears ended without a clear winner.
  • Bears retreated and cut losses, leading to the price rise.
  1. Technical Analysis Insights
  • Price Rise with Reduced Open Interest:
    • Typically does not reach significant heights.
    • Lacks strong sustainability.
  • Price Drop with Increased Open Interest:
    • Usually indicates stronger sustainability.
  1. Market Trend and Main Force’s Intent
  • The overarching trend is downward.
  • The market has returned to a wide oscillation range.
  • Expected fluctuation range: 3200 to 3300.
  1. Key Resistance Levels
  • Rebar: 3270, 3300, and 3350 are significant resistance points.
  • Hot-Rolled Coils: 3450 and 3500 are strong resistance levels.
  1. Potential Market Behavior
  • If prices reach the resistance levels:
    • Hedging positions are expected to increase.
    • This could lead to substantial selling pressure.
  1. Outlook for the Week
  • Likelihood of a breakout before Thursday is small.
  • Recommendation: Patiently await changes in market conditions.

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