🔹 Market Analysis:

1️⃣ Global Market Impact:

  • US Stock Market Plunges triggered fresh selling pressure in the black metals sector.
    • Rebar saw a significant increase in open interest, with 120K contracts added during the day session, and 17.5K contracts in the night session.
    • Glass prices also plummeted by 4%, marking new lows, with open interest rising by 100K contracts.
    • Risk-off sentiment dominates the global market—capital outflows and heightened volatility.

2️⃣ Domestic Policy & Industry Outlook:

  • Two Sessions Review:
    • Policy expectations unmet—the government’s response on black metals remained status quo, with no significant stimulus or breakthrough on supply cuts.
    • The absence of new production cut policies (no mention by the NDRC) left the market disappointed, eroding earlier bullish expectations.
    • “Steady as she goes” remains the core tone of policy, which seems insufficient to support a bullish rally.

3️⃣ Technical Analysis:

  • Downward Momentum Continues:
    • Current downtrend likely not finished yet. Expect a slow grind lower. The market is likely to experience a “small-step, slow-decline” pattern:
      • Consolidation phases will lead to gradual downward movement.
      • No new highs at the top, but new lows continue to form.
  • Key Levels to Watch:
    • Resistance: 3300-3350 range, strong selling pressure at the highs.
    • Support: 3230, any break below could signal deeper declines.

🔹 Trading Strategy:

Short bias remains dominant. Continue selling near resistance levels.
Look for slower, incremental down moves, especially if market fails to recover.
Maintain risk management, as volatility spikes in the near term.

🚨 Stay alert to external factors—global market reactions and domestic policies remain key drivers.