🔹 Market Analysis:

1️⃣ Macro Overview:

  • China’s Two Sessions Wrap-up:
    • Policy largely met expectations, but slightly underwhelming for the steel sector.
    • Special bond issuance fell short of expectations (1.3T vs. projected 2T), dampening stimulus hopes.
    • Multiple mentions of steel output cuts—potential negative impact on raw material prices.
  • Global Factors:
    • US job data weakened, fueling recession fears and increasing market uncertainty.
    • Trump’s inconsistent policy signals rattling capital markets, risk aversion on the rise.
    • Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks remain uncertain, adding to global instability.

2️⃣ Fundamental Outlook:

  • Steel inventory continues to decline, signaling solid apparent demand.
  • No major supply-demand imbalance for now, but costs are falling as raw materials weaken.
  • Expanding steel profit margins may trigger an uptick in production, a potential bearish factor.

3️⃣ Technical Outlook:

  • Last week’s candlestick: A bearish weekly close (-2.28%) with an increase in short positions (+226.7K contracts).
  • Key Levels:
    • Support: 3230 (strong support zone)
    • Resistance: 3300 → 3330 → 3350
  • Bias: High probability of range-bound trading (3230–3330) early in the week, with a breakdown more likely post-consolidation.

🔹 Trading Strategy:

✅ Short bias remains valid—watch for rejection near resistance.
✅ If price rebounds towards 3330-3350, consider short entries.
✅ If support at 3230 breaks, expect accelerated downside movement.
🚨 Stay cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainties—news-driven volatility likely.

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