🔹 Market Overview:

Yesterday’s Two Sessions meeting delivered a neutral to slightly bearish tone, with an estimated budget increase of 3 trillion RMB, falling short of market expectations.

📌 Key Policy Takeaways:

  1. Real Estate, Infrastructure, and Manufacturing:
    • No major changes; focus remains on stabilization rather than aggressive stimulus.
  2. Monetary & Fiscal Policy:
    • Moderate easing (essentially the most accommodative stance feasible).
    • Proactive fiscal policy remains in place, no major surprises.

🔹 Market Focus Shifts to Two Key Factors:

  1. Steel Production Controls:
    • The NDRC briefly mentioned the need for continued crude steel production regulation, fueling speculation about potential cuts.
  2. Spring Demand Strength (“Golden March, Silver April”)
    • If demand disappoints, steel prices may break lower.
    • If production cuts materialize, prices could rebound strongly.

🔹 Technical Outlook:

  • Increased open interest, lower volume: Indicates intensified long-short battles, with hedging activity rising.
  • Steel mill margins improving as iron ore declines.
  • Near-term support at 3250 remains intact, but a breakout is likely next week.

🔹 Strategic Takeaway:

  • Short-term rangebound trading likely, with 3250 support holding for now.
  • Next week could bring a decisive move, depending on demand signals and potential production curbs.
  • Stay flexible and closely monitor policy developments.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.