🔹 Market Overview:

Yesterday, prices for rebar and hot-rolled coil futures recovered from the previous day’s losses, with a mixed candlestick pattern (bullish and bearish candles in equal measure) and a slight bullish bias. There was an increase in trading volume and a small uptick in open interest.

  • Iron ore saw a decrease in open interest and was trading lower, with volume also increasing. The market divergence is evident, with the distant-month contracts dropping significantly more than the near-month contracts. This suggests an expectation of declining iron ore demand due to improved steel mill profitability, potentially signaling changes in the supply-demand balance.

🔹 Market Sentiment & Rumors:

While we cannot verify the rumored production restrictions, the market seems to be factoring in the possibility of these measures being implemented. The expected limit on production is around 20 million tons.

🔹 Outlook:

Given the market’s expectations of limited production and the fact that the Two Sessions are yet to begin, we expect the market to continue its oscillation between 3300-3400 in the short term.

The current market sentiment suggests that the probability of a significant move in either direction is low until more clarity is provided after the Two Sessions or further official announcements.

📌 Daily insights provided by LangZo Steel. For reprints, please credit LangZo Steel.