Market Analysis:
Yesterday’s rebound halted at 3391 before retreating to a low of 3340, with prices consolidating between 3350 and 3385. Technically, the market experienced reduced open interest and volume, indicating a need for consolidation.

Our analysis suggests a high probability of price fluctuations within the 3340-3390 range for several days, potentially lasting through the Chinese New Year. If there are announcements of interest rate or reserve requirement cuts, the market might break 3400 before settling near 3380. Without such catalysts, it is likely to hover around 3350. The chance of prices dropping below 3300 before the holiday is relatively low.

The rebound trend remains intact, and the recommended speculative strategy is “light short-term long positions.”

Strategy Recommendations:

  1. For those who closed long positions yesterday:
    • Reestablish long positions near 3360 with a 20% or smaller position size.
    • Example: For a capital base of 100,000, open 1 lot at 3365, 2 lots at 3360, and 2 lots at 3350, holding a total of 4-5 lots.
    • Set a stop-loss at 3338.
  2. For conservative traders currently holding no positions:
    • Remain on the sidelines and wait for post-holiday shorting opportunities.
  3. For those interested in calendar spread arbitrage:
    • Consider the strategy of “short near-term, long far-term” due to weak current demand and optimistic future expectations.
    • Example: With a capital base of 100,000, short 5 lots of the May 2025 contract (2505) and long 5 lots of the June 2025 contract (2510).
    • Estimated profit: 10-20 points, with a target close date around February 10.
  4. For traders with physical inventories:
    • Hedge in batches above 3420.
    • Example: Hedge 30% at 3420, another 30% at 3450, 30% at 3480, and the remaining 30% at 3550, resulting in a net short position of 20%.
  5. For those with conditions for cash-and-carry arbitrage:
    • Enter positions in batches and lock in profits before the holiday if possible.
  6. Do not short:
    • Shorting is not recommended in the current market conditions.

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