Market Analysis:
Yesterday’s price movement showed that the momentum from “energy rally driving black commodities higher” has weakened. While oil prices continued to rise sharply, with fuel oil even hitting the daily limit, the black commodity sector could not sustain the upward movement. The overnight market showed a slight range-bound oscillation, with rebar fluctuating within a narrow 10-point range.

This indicates that the influence of news-driven factors is subsiding, and the market is likely to return to fundamental-driven fluctuations. From a supply-demand perspective, inventories and production levels remain low, and market sentiment is generally stable. However, the willingness to purchase is weak, and prices may revisit recent lows.

Outlook and Strategy:
Given the current conditions, the risk/reward for short positions is not favorable, and it’s not yet the right time to go long. Patience is required as we wait for a clearer setup. We anticipate a range-bound market this week, with limited volatility.

We recommend holding off on aggressive positions and waiting for a clearer trend before taking action.

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