2024 marks a year of mixed outcomes for the global steel industry, with Chinese steel exports continuing their upward trajectory, expected to reach the highest levels since 2015. However, the global market is facing a range of challenges, including trade disputes, high inflation, and an economic slowdown. As construction demand in China continues to wane, steel consumption remains subdued, and the market is further impacted by rising geopolitical tensions. Additionally, Chinese steel prices have experienced significant fluctuations due to speculative spikes that were not supported by corresponding demand, further complicating the outlook for the industry.
In 2024, Chinese steel exports are forecasted to hit a record high, largely driven by the country’s oversupply of steel as domestic demand declines. The situation is exacerbated by the ongoing trade measures targeting Chinese steel in the EU, where the focus has shifted to other Asian steel suppliers whose products have been replaced by Chinese exports. These developments have placed additional strain on the global steel market, with prices continuing to be volatile. Despite predictions of a slight decline in Chinese steel production, the surplus still threatens to displace other global steel suppliers.
The global outlook for steel demand in 2024 has also been tempered by a series of economic concerns. While demand from the construction sector remains weak, the automotive industry’s previous strong performance helped mask issues in manufacturing last year. In 2024, the combined effect of high interest rates and global geopolitical tensions resulted in lower demand projections. According to the World Steel Association, global steel demand is expected to decline by 0.9% year-over-year, while the European Union has revised its forecast to a 1.8% decline, down from an earlier prediction of 5.6% growth.
In China, repeated government stimulus measures have failed to significantly boost domestic demand, with speculative price increases not being supported by real demand. This has led to price declines, with hot-rolled coils and rebar hitting their lowest levels in over seven years. The outlook for 2025 remains cautious, with hopes pinned on the most recent stimulus efforts to ignite demand in the coming year.
As Europe struggles with decarbonization, the region’s steelmakers continue to advocate for an industrial strategy that balances decarbonization with industrial preservation. Meanwhile, regions such as Brazil, the Middle East, and Australia are seeing more optimistic investment prospects in renewable energy and green steel production. This shift suggests that while Europe faces challenges, other regions may emerge as key players in the green steel market in the coming years.
Looking ahead to 2025, uncertainty remains prevalent, especially with the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency and the potential impact of his policies on global trade. However, there are indications that lower interest rates in mature economies could help boost steel demand in the second half of the year. Additionally, the EU’s new industrial strategy could help local suppliers gain from any demand rebound.
